Phoenix Metro Update - April 2025

Markets are a Mess, but it’s Business as Usual for Housing

In a time when financial markets seem to spin with every headline, the housing market in Greater Phoenix is quietly holding steady. While stocks and bonds twist and turn on global negotiations, real estate is proving to be a steadier ship, especially between the $250K-$500K price range, where new contracts spiked in late March.

As a Senior Housing Analyst, I’ve watched the last five years of real estate play out like a dramatic series. From record-breaking demand and appreciation to the sudden cooldown and now a stable, cautious market, real estate professionals continue to guide buyers and sellers with clarity and care. Here’s a snapshot of where we stand now and what that means for you.

For Buyers: Market Mayhem, but Opportunity Awaits

Predicting the housing market is never easy, but in today’s economic climate, even short-term forecasts feel like guesswork. Mortgage rates are swinging wildly from week to week thanks to global financial shifts, making it feel like steering a cargo ship through choppy seas: lots of movement, little real direction… until things finally settle.

Still, real estate demand remains surprisingly steady. In Greater Phoenix, buyer activity is keeping pace with last year, and one bright spot emerged in late March with a surge in contracts on homes priced between $250K and $500K. This aligns with a 6% national jump in FHA mortgage applications—likely driven by buyers racing to leverage down payment assistance and grants ahead of upcoming rule changes.

Here’s what else buyers should know:

• Inventory is rising, creating better negotiating conditions.
• Prices are stable, with the median up just 1.7% year-over-year.
• Negotiations are in buyers’ favor, averaging 97.7% of list price—but even stronger (98.6%–99%) for homes between $300K–$500K.
• Seller-paid costs are common, with some buyers negotiating $16K+ in concessions on top of price cuts.

Despite the drama in the headlines, buyers are making smart moves based on personal goals, not panic—and that’s what really drives the market.

For Sellers: Luxury Slows, but Most Markets Still Move

Luxury buyers aren’t fans of uncertainty. Listings under contract over $1M have slowed for six straight weeks as high-end buyers hit pause, waiting for more market clarity. Still, luxury activity remains the third-highest on record for Greater Phoenix, only trailing 2022 and 2024.

With luxury supply also hitting historic highs, prices in this range remain modest, and sellers must stay competitive. This story repeats across most of the Valley:

• 11 cities are in weak seller’s markets: Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Phoenix, Anthem, El Mirage, Glendale, Avondale, Apache Junction, Chandler, and Gilbert.
• 4 cities are balanced: Cave Creek, Tolleson, Tempe, Mesa.
• 14 cities are buyer’s markets: including Peoria, Goodyear, Queen Creek, and Casa Grande.

In weak seller’s or buyer’s markets, pricing is everything. Price reductions are up 68% compared to last year, with some areas seeing adjustment levels not witnessed since 2022. Even in the typically hot Northeast Valley, reductions are reminiscent of 2017, showing sellers are realistic and adjusting quickly.

Tips for sellers:

• Avoid overpricing—buyers will pass.
• Focus on condition—fresh paint or minor updates can go a long way.
• Be prepared to offer concessions or repairs to secure deals.

The market may be more discerning, but it’s far from frozen. Informed, well-prepared sellers are still making successful moves.

The Bottom Line: Keep Calm and Move Strategically

Yes, markets are messy, but the Phoenix housing market is holding its ground. Buyers are still buying, and sellers are still selling. The professionals guiding both sides are helping navigate the noise with smart strategies and grounded advice.

The key? Stay focused on your goals, not the headlines.

For more insights on the Greater Phoenix market or guidance tailored to your situation, feel free to contact Bret Johnson at 602-502-6468 or email at bret@renetgroup.com. Whether you're buying your first home, upgrading, or listing your current property, staying informed is your best move forward.

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