Should You Buy Now or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates? Understanding the Tradeoff

Should You Buy Now or Wait for Lower Mortgage Rates? Understanding the Tradeoff

Mortgage rates remain one of the hottest topics in real estate. After early August’s weaker-than-expected jobs report, the bond market reacted quickly—sending mortgage rates to their lowest point of the year so far at 6.55%.

While that drop might not seem huge, many buyers have been eagerly waiting for rates to fall. Even a small dip can spark hope that rates will continue trending downward. But what’s the reality?

According to the latest industry forecasts, rates aren’t expected to drop dramatically anytime soon. Most experts believe they’ll hover in the mid-to-low 6% range through 2026. That means small fluctuations are likely, but the days of sub-5% rates are not in the near-term outlook.

What Rate Would Motivate Buyers Again?

For many, the magic number is 6%—and it’s not just psychological. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that if rates hit 6%:

• 5.5 million more households could afford the median-priced home.
• Roughly 550,000 people would buy a home within 12–18 months.

That’s a wave of pent-up demand ready to hit the market all at once. And while forecasts suggest we might hit that number next year, waiting could come with a cost.

The Tradeoff of Waiting

If you hold out for 6%, remember—many others are doing the same. When rates dip and buyers flood back in, you could face:

• More competition for each listing.
• Fewer choices due to higher demand.
• Rising home prices as bidding wars return.

Right now, conditions are more favorable for buyers:

• Inventory is up – giving you more selection.
• Price growth has slowed – leading to more realistic listing prices.
• Negotiation opportunities exist – you may be able to secure seller concessions or favorable terms.

NAR puts it simply: “Buyers who are holding out for lower mortgage rates may be missing a key opening in the market.”

Bottom Line

Rates aren’t expected to hit 6% this year, but when they do, you’ll likely face more competition and higher prices. The current market offers less pressure, more negotiating room, and a chance to find the right home before the next wave of buyers jumps in.

If you’re wondering whether now is the right time for you, let’s talk about our local market and your unique situation. Acting strategically today could give you the edge tomorrow.

Reference:
This summary is based on insights from Bret Johnson, Associate Broker at Realty Network Group at Real Broker and Keeping Current Matters. For the full article, visit Real Estate with Bret Johnson.