Prices Drop 15% Across Phoenix: What Buyers and Sellers Should Know This Fall

Prices Are Down 15% in These Segments: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers.

The Greater Phoenix real estate market is shifting again, bringing both new opportunities and challenges for buyers and sellers alike. After months of rate volatility and price fluctuations, recent data is painting a clearer picture of where things stand — and where they’re heading next.

Let’s break down what’s happening across the Valley and what it means for your next move.

For Buyers: A Window of Opportunity Opens

After a year of uncertainty, mortgage rates finally eased, falling from 6.85% in mid-July to 6.1% by mid-September — the lowest point in over a year. While this created a noticeable dip in payments (about 7.5% lower), many buyers initially held back, waiting to see where rates would stabilize. Once rates settled near 6.3%, activity picked up, with October showing stronger buyer movement than the past three years.

But that’s not the only good news for buyers. List prices have also been trending down. Homes under $1 million saw asking prices fall an average of 2.5% between May and August, before stabilizing this fall. When these homes begin closing later this year, they could mark some of the lowest sale prices of 2025.

The largest declines are showing up in the first-time buyer price ranges:

• Condominiums between $ 250,000 and $ 300,000 in Maricopa County have dropped 4.3% since July and are now 15% below their 2022 peaks.
• Single-family homes between $300K–$400K in Pinal County are down 6.7% since April and 15% below 2022 highs.
• Maricopa County homes in the same $300K–$400K range are down 2.9% year-over-year and 13% below their 2022 peaks.

Meanwhile, the Valley’s overall median price shows only a mild year-over-year increase — a reminder that metro-wide statistics can mask the variation happening in specific price segments.

Buyers are also benefiting from seller incentives. In September, 56% of MLS closings included seller-paid concessions, with a median of $10,000 in assistance, often used for rate buydowns. While this trend has been key in keeping deals moving, the number of sellers able to offer such incentives may shrink as appreciation softens.

And seasonally? The 4th quarter is historically the best time to buy in Greater Phoenix. Inventory typically rises ahead of the holidays while buyer activity slows, leading to more price reductions and stronger negotiation power for those ready to act.

Pro Tip: Don’t wait for the “perfect” moment. Real estate is a long-term investment — the sooner you start building equity, the more stability you gain over time.

For Sellers: Patience, Pricing, and Perspective

There’s no denying that 2025 has tested sellers’ patience. Between stock market swings, higher interest rates, and hesitant buyers, selling a home has required a strategic approach and flexibility.

However, there are reasons for optimism. Sales between $500K–$1.5M jumped 19% year-over-year in September, boosting market share and price per square foot in that range. This strength has been driven partly by jumbo mortgage rates dipping below those of conventional 30-year loans for the first time in two years, along with the growing popularity of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), which average 5.8%.

Market conditions still vary widely across the Valley:

• Seller’s markets: Fountain Hills, Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Anthem, Avondale, Gilbert, Chandler, Apache Junction, El Mirage, and Sun Lakes.
• Balanced markets: Phoenix, Glendale, Tolleson, Mesa, Tempe, and Sun City West.
• Buyer’s markets: Peoria (borderline), Surprise, Goodyear, Buckeye, Laveen, Gold Canyon, San Tan Valley, Queen Creek, Maricopa, Arizona City, Casa Grande, and others on the outer edges with new construction.

While the 4th quarter isn’t typically the strongest selling season, those who approach it with realistic pricing, patience, and good presentation can still secure a sale before year’s end. Waiting until January may bring more buyer activity — but it also brings more listing competition as new inventory floods the market.

Bottom Line: Strategy Is Everything

For buyers, the next few months offer a rare combination of lower rates, lower prices, and motivated sellers, an opportunity that may not last long. For sellers, the key is positioning your property strategically in a competitive environment and working with an experienced agent who understands your local market dynamics.

Whether you’re buying your first home or preparing to list, the Realty Network Group team is here to guide you through every step — with data, strategy, and experience that makes a difference.

Ready to discuss your next move?  Call us today at 602-502-6468 or email bret@renetgroup.com to connect with a local expert who knows your market. Visit realtynetworkgroup.com to learn more.

Reference:

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2025 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC