Phoenix Metro Update - July 2025

Phoenix Market Pulse: July 2025 Cromford Report Summary

Welcome to July in Phoenix, where the only thing hotter than the pavement is the housing market’s latest twists and turns. This month’s Cromford Report reveals a market in flux—supply is shrinking, sellers are stepping back, and certain price ranges are seeing surprising momentum. Whether you're a buyer navigating shifting prices or a seller looking for leverage, this update is your guide to understanding what’s happening in Greater Phoenix real estate right now.

For Buyers: Is the Tide Turning in Your Favor?

It’s official—the peak buying season has come and gone. While the year started off strong, Q2 saw a cooldown thanks to rising mortgage rates and market unpredictability.

Here’s what buyers need to know:

• Listings Are Dropping: Canceled listings are up 46% and expired listings have soared 79% year-over-year. New listings dropped 24% from Memorial Day to Independence Day.
• Overall Supply Down 8% in 5 Weeks: Most dramatic among homes over $800K, with a 14% supply drop versus just 5% under $800K.
• Surprising Seller’s Markets: Paradise Valley, for instance, saw a 39% decrease in active supply and only a 5% drop in contracts, pushing it into the 3rd strongest seller’s market despite the season.

In more affordable segments:

• $250K–$300K Homes: June sales increased by 38%, and contracts rose significantly around the 4th of July.
• $300K–$400K Homes: Sales rose 10%.
• Prices Are Cooling: These price brackets are down 3.5% from last year; condos in this range dropped 5.5% in price and 11% in sales volume.

Bottom line: It’s still a buyer’s market—but with falling prices and signs of movement in affordable homes, now may be your moment to strike before competition increases.

For Sellers: Know the Playing Field

It’s still a tough environment for sellers, but not without opportunity.
Here’s where things stand:

• Seller Incentives Remain the Norm: 55% of closings involved sellers contributing a median of $10,000 toward the buyer's closing costs.
• Sales Volume Remains Flat Year-Over-Year, While Supply Increases by 41%.
• Time on Market: Median of 44 days for single-family homes, 59 days for condos/townhomes.

When it comes to negotiation:

• $300K–$400K Single-Family Homes: Closing within 99.1% of list price.
• Condos/Townhomes in Same Range: Closing within 97.7%.
• Luxury Homes Over $1M: Selling between 95%–96% of list price.

But let’s be clear:

• Price Gaps ≠ Price Trends. A large negotiation gap doesn’t mean the market is crashing—it’s often just a correction from overly ambitious listing prices.

On average:

• Homes Under $400K: Down 4.5% from last year.
• $400K–$600K Range: Down 2.4%.
• $600K–$1.5M: Essentially flat.
• Over $1.5M: Prices are actually up 4.4%.

If you’re a seller, strategy is everything. List smartly, offer incentives where appropriate, and familiarize yourself with your neighborhood's metrics.

Conclusion: A Market in Motion

The Phoenix housing market continues to defy simple labels. While buyers enjoy pricing relief, limited supply and seasonal shifts are creating fresh opportunities for sellers in specific niches.

Whether you're buying your first home, moving up, or selling your luxury property, understanding this dynamic market is key. If you have questions about your next move, I’m here to help.
For expert guidance in the Phoenix Metro area, contact Bret Johnson 📞 602-502-6468 or 📧 bret@renetgroup.com at Realty Network Group at REAL Broker.

Reference: 

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2025 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC