Contracts in Escrow Up 7%: What It Means for Buyers and Sellers in Greater Phoenix

The spring home buying season is heating up across Greater Phoenix, and we’re starting to see measurable momentum. According to the latest data from The Cromford Report, contracts in escrow are up 7% compared to this time last year. While the market isn’t as frenzied as it once was, it’s clearly improving, and both buyers and sellers need to understand what that means for their strategy.

As a REALTOR® in the Phoenix Metro area, I closely follow local data to help my clients make confident, informed decisions. Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening right now and how you can position yourself for success.

For Buyers: Improving Conditions, But Still Competitive

Step 1: Understand the Demand Shift

Buyer demand is still about 16% below normal for this time of year, but that’s a significant improvement from last August, when it was 24% below normal. Stabilized mortgage rates in the low-6% range (with FHA and some ARMs in the mid-5% range) have helped bring buyers back into the market.

The busiest months for contracts are typically February through May, and we’re entering that peak window now. If you’re planning to buy this year, timing and preparation matter.

Step 2: Take Advantage of Improved Affordability

Non-luxury home prices under $800,000 are down an average of 4% from last year. When you combine price reductions with lower mortgage rates, median monthly payments are down about 14% compared to this time last year.

To put that in perspective:
A $2,500 monthly payment last year would average about $350 less today for the same home.

Many buyers are wondering if they should wait another 3–6 months for further declines. Based on current trends, waiting may only save around $30 per month, which may not outweigh the opportunity cost of delaying your purchase.

Step 3: Know Your City’s Market

Not every city is experiencing the same conditions. For example, Apache Junction is currently 23% above normal in demand and ranks among the strongest seller’s markets in the Valley.

Meanwhile, growing cities like Buckeye, Goodyear, Surprise, and San Tan Valley are seeing higher supply levels, creating more buyer-friendly conditions. Many buyers in these areas are benefiting from seller and builder incentives.

The key takeaway: real estate is hyper-local. Your strategy should match your target city and price point.

For Sellers: It’s Better, But It’s Not Easy

Step 4: Prepare for Seasonal Inventory Surges

January is traditionally strong for luxury and retirement listings, but March is the peak month for mainstream sellers to list. This creates a wave of new inventory heading into the spring.

When supply rises, competition increases, and pricing becomes critical.

Step 5: Price Strategically, Not Emotionally

As the market shifts from seller-leaning to more balanced or buyer-leaning conditions, overpricing can lead to silence. Buyers today are quick to “ghost” listings that test unrealistic price boundaries.

Data shows early price reductions are down 4% compared to last year, which suggests sellers are becoming more realistic upfront. The sweet spot? Pricing within 2–3% of where buyers perceive true market value.

In today’s environment, it’s not about squeezing out every dollar for every upgrade. It’s about being the best value, the biggest “bang for the buck” in your competitive set.

Step 6: Condition Matters More Than Ever

In a buyer’s market, condition is often more important than price alone. Simply discounting a home for needed repairs doesn’t always work. Buyers may avoid homes that require extra time, effort, and uncertainty, especially when there are cleaner, move-in-ready options available.

If repairs are needed, consider:

Providing contractor estimates
Offering to complete repairs before closing
Highlighting newer systems and maintenance records

Also, pay attention to nearby new construction communities. Even if they aren’t directly comparable, buyers will use them as a benchmark for condition, incentives, and perceived value.

Conclusion: Strategy Wins in 2026

The Greater Phoenix market has stabilized and improved compared to last summer. Inventory has returned to normal seasonal levels after years of undersupply, and contracts in escrow are rising. But this is no longer the “name your price” environment of the past.

Buyers have more options and improved affordability. Sellers must be strategic with pricing and presentation.

Whether you’re buying or selling in the Phoenix Metro area, having a data-driven plan tailored to your specific neighborhood is more important than ever.

If you’d like to discuss what these trends mean for your situation, I’m here to help. Feel free to contact me, Bret Johnson, at 602-502-6468 or email me at bret@renetgroup.com. Let’s create a strategy that works for you in today’s market.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report
©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC