Greater Phoenix Housing Market Update: What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know for Early 2026

As we step into a new year, the Greater Phoenix housing market is showing clear signs of transition. After several years of dramatic swings, early 2026 is shaping up to be a period of stabilization with opportunities for both buyers and sellers who understand where the market is headed.

As a REALTOR® in the Phoenix Metro area, I closely follow local data like The Cromford Report to help my clients make confident, well-informed decisions. Here’s a breakdown of what the latest numbers mean for you.

What the Market Is Doing Right Now

January traditionally brings a surge of new listings, particularly in luxury and retirement communities, with mainstream listings peaking later in the spring. This year is no exception, but with a few important nuances.

New listings are only 2.5% lower than this time last year, which is still stronger than the historically low January inventory we experienced from 2020 through 2024. Overall, supply and demand are moving toward a more balanced market as we begin 2026.

For Buyers: Affordability Is Improving with Trade-Offs

One of the most notable trends is the rise in homes priced under $300,000, where new listings are up 15% year over year. This price point now makes up about 18% of the total housing supply in Greater Phoenix and represents the most affordable segment of the market.

Prices in this range are down 2–3% from last year and continue to soften, making it an increasingly attractive option for first-time buyers and renters looking to purchase.

What This Means for Buyers:

• Monthly payments on homes under $300K can compete with rent, especially with FHA financing.
• Buyers may need to compromise on location or home type, such as condos or homes in outer cities like Maricopa or Pinal County.
• Affordability challenges today are often less about a lack of inventory and more about the desirability of location.

The data suggests affordability pressures are easing, not because homes don’t exist, but because buyers are reluctant to leave preferred areas.

For Sellers: Sales Are Rising, but Pricing Still Matters

Despite higher mortgage rates throughout much of 2025, total annual sales finished up 3.5%, with over 2,300 more sales compared to 2024. At the same time, new construction slowed significantly, with permits down 21%, limiting future supply.

Certain cities stood out with strong sales growth:

Cities with the Most Sales Growth (By Volume):

• Goodyear: Up 16%, median price $486K
• Scottsdale: Up 5%, median price $900K
• Peoria: Up 7%, median price $515K

Fastest-Growing Cities (By Percentage):

• Waddell: Up 36%, median price $468K
• Sun Lakes: Up 32%, median price $470K
• Anthem: Up 29%, median price $574K

The overall Greater Phoenix median sales price is $451,000, and many cities seeing growth are priced well above that figure.

Mortgage Rates Are Helping,  But Prices Aren’t Rising (Yet)

Entering 2026, mortgage rates have dipped into the high-5% to low-6% range, resulting in 10–12% lower payments on the same-priced homes compared to last year. This is expected to support stronger first-quarter sales activity.

However, it’s important to note:

• Home prices typically lag behind market shifts by 3–6 months
• Price growth remains flat in mid-range homes
• Prices are rising in the upper price points
• Homes under $400K continue to see modest declines

Phoenix is moving out of a buyer’s market and into balance, but a strong seller’s market is not on the immediate horizon.

Bottom Line: Strategy Matters More Than Ever

The early 2026 market rewards buyers and sellers who understand the data and price accordingly. Buyers have more options and improved affordability, while sellers can still succeed with the right pricing and preparation.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling in the Phoenix Metro area and want a strategy tailored to your goals, I’m here to help.

📞 Bret Johnson
📧 bret@renetgroup.com
📱 602-502-6468

Let’s make your next move a smart one.