Expert Forecasts Point to Affordability Improving in 2026

If you’ve been wondering whether the housing market will finally become more affordable, you’re not alone. Over the past few years, high mortgage rates, limited inventory, and rising home prices have made buying or selling feel overwhelming for many homeowners and would-be buyers. The good news? Experts agree that affordability is improving and 2026 is shaping up to offer more balance and opportunity.

As a REALTOR® in the Phoenix Metro area, I closely watch national trends and how they impact our local market. According to leading housing economists, several key factors are coming together this year to make moving more realistic for both buyers and sellers.

Mortgage Rates Are Lower — and Stabilizing

Mortgage rates have already come down significantly from their recent peak, dropping by nearly a full percentage point over the past year. While many buyers are hoping rates will fall even further, most forecasts suggest they’ll hover in the low 6% range throughout 2026.

While that may not sound dramatic, even a modest decrease in rates can make a meaningful difference in monthly payments and purchasing power.

What this means for buyers:
Lower rates help reduce monthly costs and allow buyers to qualify for homes that may have felt out of reach just a year ago.

What this means for sellers:
Rates in the 6% range are likely the new normal. If you’re thinking about moving, today’s rates are workable — especially if you’re using the equity you’ve built over time.

Inventory Is Improving, Giving Buyers More Options

One of the biggest challenges in recent years has been a lack of available homes. In 2025, inventory increased by about 15%, restoring something buyers haven’t had in a long time: options.

Experts predict inventory will continue to grow in 2026, with Realtor.com forecasting nearly a 9% increase in available homes nationwide. More inventory means buyers have more choices, more time to make decisions, and increased negotiating power.

For sellers, this shift makes pricing strategy more important than ever. Homes that are priced correctly and prepared well will stand out and attract serious buyers.

Home Prices Are Rising — but at a Healthier Pace

While home prices are still expected to increase, the pace of growth is slowing to more sustainable levels. Experts project national home prices will rise by an average of about 1.6% in 2026.

This is reassuring news for homeowners concerned about dramatic price drops. Instead of volatility, the market is moving toward stability — though price trends will continue to vary by location.

For buyers:
Moderate price growth means fewer surprises and more predictable budgeting.

For sellers:
Slower appreciation helps maintain equity while supporting a more balanced market.

More Homes Are Expected to Sell in 2026

With lower rates, more inventory, and steadier price growth, affordability is improving, and experts expect that to lead to increased home sales this year.

Zillow’s Chief Economist notes that both buyers and sellers should experience more breathing room in 2026, creating conditions that encourage movement rather than hesitation.

Bottom Line

Affordability won’t improve overnight, but the trends are clearly moving in the right direction. A more balanced market, greater predictability, and improved options are opening doors that have been closed for years.

If you’re curious how these national trends are playing out here in the Phoenix Metro area or if you’re considering buying or selling in 2026, I’m here to help.

Feel free to reach out to me, Bret Johnson, at 480-775-7700 or clientcare@renetgroup.com. Let’s talk about what today’s market opportunities mean for you.

Reference: This summary is based on insights from Bret Johnson, Associate Broker at Realty Network Group at Real Broker and Keeping Current Matters. For the full article, visit Real Estate with Bret Johnson.