Phoenix Housing Market Update: What April’s Numbers Mean for Buyers & Sellers

The Phoenix Metro real estate market continues to show resilience as we move through spring. While headlines may focus on fluctuating mortgage rates and global uncertainty, the underlying story is one of stability, especially when it comes to home prices.

As a REALTOR® here in the Valley, I keep a close eye on trends so I can guide my clients with clarity and confidence. Here’s a breakdown of what’s happening right now and what it means for you, whether you're buying or selling.

Mortgage Rates: A Month of Movement

March brought a spike in mortgage rates, jumping from 5.99% to 6.64% due to global economic uncertainty. However, by mid-April, rates settled back down to around 6.3% and are trending downward.

What does this mean?

Short-term fluctuations are becoming the norm. Over the past few years, buyers have learned that patience pays off. When uncertainty hits—whether from inflation concerns or global events, rates tend to react quickly but often stabilize just as fast.

For Buyers: Opportunity in Patience

The brief rise in rates caused a slowdown in buyer activity. Contracts were up 10% in March but only increased by 1% in April.

However, this slowdown doesn’t necessarily signal weakness; it reflects hesitation during rate volatility.

Here’s the key takeaway:

• As rates dip closer to (or below) 6.25%, buyer activity is expected to rebound
• Current rates are still below the 3.5-year average of 6.89%
• Less competition right now may create an opportunity for strategic buyers

If you’ve been waiting for the “right time,” this could be your window before activity picks back up.

Inventory & Pricing: A Balancing Act

Earlier this year, we saw a rise in housing supply, but that growth has slowed significantly:

• February: Supply up 9% year-over-year
• March: Up 4.8%
• April: Barely up 0.2%

At the same time, buyer demand also slowed. These two forces have essentially balanced each other out, keeping home prices steady.

In fact, for most single-family homes, prices are holding within 1% of last year’s levels.

For Sellers: Stability Is Your Advantage

If you're selling, the news is encouraging, especially in the single-family home market.

Homes between 1,200 and 2,400 square feet have shown the most price stability over the past three years. This is a strong indicator that well-positioned homes are still performing consistently.

However, not all segments are equal:

• Condos under $300K are facing more competition
• Supply is up 20% in that segment
• Prices are down approximately 9.5% year-over-year

For sellers, this reinforces the importance of pricing strategically and understanding your specific market segment.

The Bigger Picture: Long-Term Confidence

Despite short-term fluctuations, the market remains steady overall. Home values typically take 3–6 months to respond to prolonged economic changes, and current data suggests that recent disruptions are likely temporary.

In other words, the Phoenix market is doing what it does best: adapting and stabilizing.

What This Means for You

• Buyers: Stay patient, watch rates, and be ready to act when opportunities arise
• Sellers: Price strategically and lean into the stability of today’s market
• Everyone: Don’t let headlines distract from the bigger picture. This is still a healthy, active market

Final Thoughts

Real estate is always evolving, but right now, the Phoenix market is showing strong signs of balance and resilience. Whether you're planning to buy, sell, or just stay informed, understanding these trends can help you make confident decisions.

If you’d like to talk through what this means for your specific situation, I’m always here to help guide you.  Feel free to contact me, Bret Johnson, at 602-502-6468 or email me at bret@renetgroup.com.

Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report, ©2026 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC